XOM · EXXON MOBIL CORP
CIK 34088 · SIC 2911 Petroleum Refining · Latest FY 2025
-2.13
Beneish M
2.02
Altman Z
0.28
Dechow F
4/9
Piotroski
3/6
Montier C
All metrics — FY2025 · click any row to see the formula
Beneish M-Score-2.13
Composite earnings-manipulation index built from 8 component ratios.
M = −4.84 + 0.92·DSRI + 0.528·GMI + 0.404·AQI + 0.892·SGI + 0.115·DEPI − 0.172·SGAI + 4.679·TATA − 0.327·LVGI
Plugged in:
M = −4.84
+ 0.92 × 1.398 = +1.286
+ 0.528 × 1.000 = +0.528
+ 0.404 × 1.760 = +0.711
+ 0.892 × 0.833 = +0.743
+ 0.115 × 1.200 = +0.138
− 0.172 × 1.180 = -0.203
+ 4.679 × -0.043 = -0.200
− 0.327 × 0.909 = -0.297
= -2.13
Threshold: >-1.78 flags possible manipulation. >-1.49 is the original Beneish (1999) threshold.
Altman Z-Score2.02
Bankruptcy / financial-distress index. Distress correlates with stronger incentive to manage earnings.
Note: this build uses Equity/Assets as a proxy for X2 (no retained-earnings concept pulled) and 0 for X4 (no price feed wired in yet), so absolute Z values are biased; rankings are still meaningful.
Z = 1.2·X1 + 1.4·X2 + 3.3·X3 + 0.6·X4 + 1.0·X5
X1 = (Current Assets − Current Liabilities) / Total Assets [working capital]
X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets [accumulated profitability]
X3 = EBIT / Total Assets [operating efficiency]
X4 = Market Cap / Total Liabilities [solvency]
X5 = Revenue / Total Assets [asset turnover]
Threshold: Z < 1.81 = distress zone, 1.81–2.99 = grey zone, >2.99 = safe.
Note: this build uses Equity/Assets as a proxy for X2 (no retained-earnings concept pulled) and 0 for X4 (no price feed wired in yet), so absolute Z values are biased; rankings are still meaningful.
Dechow F-Score0.28
Probability of a material misstatement, trained on SEC Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases (Dechow et al. 2011, Model 1).
predicted = −7.893 + 0.790·RSST_accruals + 2.518·ΔReceivables + 1.191·ΔInventory
+ 1.979·%SoftAssets + 0.171·%ΔRevenue − 0.932·ΔROA
prob = 1 / (1 + exp(−predicted))
F-Score = prob / 0.0037 (unconditional rate of misstatement)
Threshold: F > 1 = above average risk; > 2.45 = high risk; > 4.62 = very high risk.
Piotroski F-Score4 / 9
Sums 9 binary indicators of fundamental health. Higher is better.
+1 if Net Income > 0
+1 if CFO > 0
+1 if ΔROA > 0
+1 if CFO > Net Income (accrual quality)
+1 if Δ(LongTermDebt/TA) < 0
+1 if Δ(CurrentRatio) > 0
+1 if shares outstanding did not rise
+1 if Δ(GrossMargin) > 0
+1 if Δ(AssetTurnover) > 0
Threshold: 0–3 = weak, 4–6 = average, 7–9 = strong.
Montier C-Score3 / 6
Six binary fraud screens (Montier 2008). Higher = more flags fired simultaneously.
+1 if Net Income > CFO (earnings exceed cash)
+1 if Days Sales Outstanding rising
+1 if Days Sales of Inventory rising
+1 if (Other current assets / TA) rising
+1 if Depreciation/PP&E declining
+1 if Total assets growing >10% YoY (acquisition-fueled growth)
Threshold: ≥4 of 6 is the warning band.
DSRI · Days Sales Receivable Index1.398
Year-over-year change in (Receivables / Sales). Rising means collections slowing — a classic revenue-recognition red flag.
DSRI = (AR_t / Sales_t) ÷ (AR_t-1 / Sales_t-1)
Threshold: >1.31 in Beneish's original sample.
GMI · Gross Margin Index1.000
Inverse-direction: prior gross margin divided by current. >1 means margins deteriorated.
GMI = ((Sales_t-1 − COGS_t-1) / Sales_t-1) ÷ ((Sales_t − COGS_t) / Sales_t)
Threshold: >1.20 raises pressure to manage earnings.
AQI · Asset Quality Index1.760
Tracks change in soft (non-current, non-PP&E) assets as a share of total. Rising = intangibles, deferred costs, or capitalized expenses growing fast.
AQI = (1 − (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TA_t)
÷ (1 − (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TA_t-1)
Threshold: >1.20.
SGI · Sales Growth Index0.833
Simply revenue growth. Aggressive growth alone isn't fraud, but pairs with other flags.
SGI = Sales_t / Sales_t-1
Watch above 1.50 in combination with DSRI/TATA.
DEPI · Depreciation Index1.200
Prior depreciation rate divided by current. >1 means depreciation slowed — useful lives may have been extended to suppress expense.
DEPI = (Dep_t-1 / (Dep_t-1 + PPE_t-1))
÷ (Dep_t / (Dep_t + PPE_t))
Threshold: >1.10.
SGAI · SG&A Index1.180
Change in SG&A as a fraction of sales.
SGAI = (SGA_t / Sales_t) ÷ (SGA_t-1 / Sales_t-1)
Sharp moves either direction can signal one-time charges or aggressive capitalization.
LVGI · Leverage Index0.909
Change in (Total Liabilities / Total Assets). Rising leverage increases covenant pressure.
LVGI = (TL_t / TA_t) ÷ (TL_t-1 / TA_t-1)
Threshold: >1.20 in combination with weak earnings quality.
TATA · Total Accruals to Total Assets-0.043
Net income that didn't show up as cash, scaled by assets. The Beneish formulation.
TATA = (NetIncome_t − CFO_t) / TotalAssets_t
Threshold: >0.03 is the classic Sloan accruals red flag; the higher and more sustained, the worse.
Sloan accruals ratio-0.047
The original Sloan (1996) ratio: same numerator, scaled by *average* assets.
Accruals ratio = (NI_t − CFO_t) / ((TA_t + TA_t-1) / 2)
High-accrual firms historically underperform low-accrual firms by 10%+ annually.
CFO − Net Income gap0.538
Operating cash flow minus net income, scaled by |NI|. Strongly negative = NI > CFO, which is the highest-conviction earnings-quality red flag.
gap = (CFO_t − NI_t) / (|NI_t| + 1)
Threshold: < −0.30.
Revenue − A/R growth gap-0.332
Revenue YoY growth minus receivables YoY growth, in decimal points. Negative = receivables outpacing sales.
gap = (Rev_t − Rev_t-1)/Rev_t-1 − (AR_t − AR_t-1)/AR_t-1
Threshold: < −0.10. Suggests bill-and-hold, channel stuffing, or collection deterioration.
Revenue − Inventory growth gap-0.167
Revenue YoY growth minus inventory YoY growth.
gap = (Rev_t − Rev_t-1)/Rev_t-1 − (Inv_t − Inv_t-1)/Inv_t-1
Threshold: < −0.10. Inventory build outpacing demand → future write-down risk.
Goodwill / Total Assets0.000
Share of the balance sheet attributable to past acquisition premiums.
GW/TA = Goodwill_t / TotalAssets_t
Threshold: >0.40 = acquisition-heavy; impairment risk is elevated when cash flow softens.
Composite scores over time
Earnings quality signals
Triggered red flags (5)
| Severity | Code | Headline | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| medium | DSRI |
Days-Sales-Receivable index 1.40 | Receivables growing faster than sales — revenue-recognition risk or channel stuffing. |
| medium | AQI |
Asset Quality Index 1.76 | Soft assets (intangibles, deferrals) growing faster than hard assets. |
| medium | DEPI |
Depreciation Index 1.20 | Useful lives may have been extended to suppress depreciation expense. |
| medium | REV_AR |
Revenue grew -33pp slower than receivables | Sales not converting to cash — bill-and-hold or extended terms suspected. |
| medium | REV_INV |
Inventory growing faster than revenue (-17pp) | Possible obsolescence or future write-down risk. |
Rule-based narrative
EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM) FY2025 — 5 flags (0 high, 5 medium, 0 low). Flags are scattered rather than forming a single textbook pattern. Review each finding individually before drawing conclusions. Triggered findings: - [MEDIUM] Days-Sales-Receivable index 1.40 — Receivables growing faster than sales — revenue-recognition risk or channel stuffing. - [MEDIUM] Asset Quality Index 1.76 — Soft assets (intangibles, deferrals) growing faster than hard assets. - [MEDIUM] Depreciation Index 1.20 — Useful lives may have been extended to suppress depreciation expense. - [MEDIUM] Revenue grew -33pp slower than receivables — Sales not converting to cash — bill-and-hold or extended terms suspected. - [MEDIUM] Inventory growing faster than revenue (-17pp) — Possible obsolescence or future write-down risk.
Claude analysis
Click "Generate" to call Claude. Findings JSON is sent as structured input; the model is instructed to explain plausible narratives without inventing facts.